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Showing posts from November, 2022

Library

In this section I list my personal library, by order of increasing complexity (and sometimes by the chronological order by which I read them) These books span a variety of subjects, from personal finance, economics, and varied investment methods, including paper assets, real estate, commodities and cryptocurrencies. These are just "suggestions", based on the high quality, the diversity and clarity of the contents.   Recommended Books and Publications, for Self-Education: Books Rich Dad Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!, by Robert T. Kiyosaki   Rich Dad's CASHFLOW Quadrant: Rich Dad's Guide to Financial Freedom Paperback, by Robert T. Kiyosaki   The Economist Guide to Financial Markets: Why They Exist and How They Work, by Marc Levinson  An Economist Walks into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk, by Allison Schrager   The ABCs of Real Estate Investing: The Secrets of Finding Hidde...

Weekly Review: 21-25 November 2022

Summary: Durable goods orders in the US which measure the cost of orders received by manufacturers for goods that meant to last at least three years, jumped 1% month-over-month in October of 2022, following a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in September and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% rise. It is the biggest rise in four months, led by transportation equipment (2.1%) and military aircraft (21.7%). The data aren’t adjusted for inflation. Excluding transportation, new orders edged 0.5% higher. Other increases were also seen for electrical equipment and appliances (0.4%); machinery (1.5%); capital goods (2.1%); and computers and related (4.7%). Meanwhile, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for investment in equipment, were up 0.7%, rebounding from a 0.8% drop in September and beating forecasts of a flat reading. New home sales in the United States rose by 7.5% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 632K in October of 2022, beating market forecast...

Week in Review: 14-18 November 2022

Summary: Retail sales in the US surged 1.3% month-over-month in October of 2022, the strongest increase in eight months, after a flat reading in September and beating market forecasts of a 1% gain. Sales at motor vehicle dealers were up 1.3% as supply chain constraints have been easing while rising gasoline costs pushed sales at gasoline stations 4.1% higher. Excluding gasoline and autos, retail sales were up 0.9%. Existing home sales in the US tumbled 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October of 2022, the lowest since December of 2011 with the exception of a very brief fall at the beginning of the pandemic, and compared to the market forecasts of 4.38 million. It was the ninth straight month of falling sales as home prices remained elevated and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a 20-year high pushing many buyers out of the market. "More potential homebuyers were squeezed out from qualifying for a mortgage in October as mortgage rates climbed higher.  Ho...

Week In Review: 7-11 November 2022

Summary: This week's highlights were the US midterm elections, the CPI report and the FTX crypto exchange bankruptcy. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a fourth month to 7.7% in October of 2022, the lowest since January, and below market forecasts of 8%. It compares with 8.2% in September. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.4%, the same as in September and below expectations of a higher 0.6% rate. After the release of the CPI data, the markets rallied amazingly. What a reaction! But the bear market is not over. If a serious recession is on the way, the next 6 months will not have an upwards direction on the stock markets. Geopolitical instability and the energy crisis are not over! If we continue with a relatively high inflation, with declining earnings and with a softening economy the stock valuations will have to continue the re-pricing over the next months. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 54.7 in November of 2022, ...

The History of Gold - Why Gold?

Why gold? Why bother? Gold has no counter-party risk. Gold is a hard asset. You can but you don't have to keep gold in a bank (it's portable!). Gold has a lot of history as real money and as a wealth preservation mechanism. That is why many experts advice you to have 5-10 % of precious metals on your portfolio - it can be more, but less is risky! Gold and precious metals don't cash flow and usually don't appreciate or grow in value (don't count too much on it), but are much more stable than fiat currencies and they will keep your wealth over time. Besides inflation, money printing and exploding debt, take a look at this: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/explainers/tell-me/html/minimum_reserve_req.en.html Our banking system is a fractional reserve system. If everybody went to the bank to empty their accounts, the bank would go bust! "The bank keeps my money" is a misconception! The banks have little money! The banks are not required to have more t...

Week in Review: 31 October-4 November 2022

Summary: This was another exciting week, with the release of important numbers regarding the economic and financial situation. Monday and Tuesday everybody was awaiting for the FED decision (FOMC meeting) regarding the FED funds rate increase and, most importantly, the president speech and its tone regarding future monetary policy. The 0.75 % rate increase was no surprise (currently the rate is at 4 %), but it was accompanied by a slightly dovish note, which sent the markets up. Then, during Jerome Powell's speech and Q&A session, the tone was very hawkish again. The markets tanked. The specialists debate whether the rate hikes will fix inflation or not (most likely not, unless demand is destroyed due to a recession/depression). Inflation is usually a monetary phenomena (excessive money supply) - in this case, demand is high, due to the stimulus in 2020-2021, and supply has still not recovered from the supply chain disruption, lockdowns and economic war against China and Russia...