Summary:      A relaxed week, without any big developments on the geopolitical or economic fronts. No rally in the stock markets (the so-called Santa Claus Rally) and low volume as expected for this time of the year.      The next months will be key in revealing the terminal FED funds rate. Then, we may get the confirmation (or not) of a recession. The slowing down of the economy will be evident in individual company earnings and will drive valuations down. The re-opening of China and the end of the zero-COVID policy is to be confirmed. Energy markets will be dependent on supply (including OPEC decisions) and demand (recession in the West, vs the re-opening of China). The energy trade is not clear at all.      Going into 2023, other instability sources include the low liquidity in the bond markets and cryptocurrency mayhem. Invest carefully, and stay tuned.     Next week, in the US, there is the release of the labour market re...

A few interesting documentaries about Financial and Corporate scandals in the recent past. The Madoff Case Video: The Madoff Affair (full documentary) | FRONTLINE Channel: FRONTLINE PBS | Official ENRON Video: Enron - The Biggest Fraud in History Channel: ColdFusion HEALTHSOUTH Video: Biggest Healthcare Fraud In US History Explained Channel: Wall Street Millennial WORLDCOM Video: How Bernard Ebbers Faked His Way To $180 Billion Channel: Logically Answered Theranos Video: Theranos – Silicon Valley’s Greatest Disaster Channel: ColdFusion Bank Fraud Video: How The Biggest Banks Get Away With Fraud Channel: ColdFusion

Summary:      Argentina won the Football World Cup 2022. (Source: The New York Times )      Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried went to jail in the Bahamas and then was extradited to the US. (Source: The Guardian )      CFPB ordered Wells Fargo to Pay $3.7 Billion for widespread Mismanagement of auto loans, mortgages, and deposit accounts (Source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau )      Elon Musk has polled the Twitter universe again and the voters told him it's time to leave! (Source: CNN )      After days in the red, the stock markets had a couple of green days, but on Thursday a big RED day, after "too positive" economic news regarding GDP growth.      The US economy grew an annualized 3.2% on quarter in Q3 2022, better than 2.9% in the second estimate, and rebounding from two straight quarters of contraction. Consumer spending rose more than anticipated (2.3% vs 1.7% in the second estimate), a...

Summary:      On Tuesday, the annual inflation rate in the US showed signs of slowing down, for a fifth straight month to 7.1% in November of 2022, the lowest since December last year, and below forecasts of 7.3%. The markets rallied after such good news.      However, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 50bps. It was the seventh consecutive rate hike. During the speech and in the Q&A session, Powell insisted in keeping "a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%". The Fed now expects interest rates to reach 5.1% next year, 4.1% in 2024, and 3.1% in 2025, higher than previously indicated. Meanwhile, GDP growth projections were revised higher for this year (0.5% vs 0.2%) but lowered for 2023 (0.5% vs 1.2%) and 2024 (1.6% vs 1.7%). Inflation forecasts were revised higher for 2022 (5.6% vs 5.4%), 2023 (3.1% vs 2.8%) and 2024 (2.5% vs 2.3%).      After the FOMC meeting and...

A strong leader, and perhaps too stubborn in the end of her career as a prime minister in the UK. How well you did during her time in office defines what you think of Margaret Thatcher. Video: How Margaret Thatcher Became Britain’s Most Hated Prime Minister | The Iron Lady | Timeline Channel: Timeline - World History Documentaries

Summary:      The ISM Services PMI was released and the number was higher than last month (56.5 in November of 2022, vs 54.4 in October). Business activity increased faster (64.7 vs 55.7) and employment rebounded (51.5 vs 49.1), prompted by a new fiscal period and the holiday season. Also, price pressures eased (70 vs 70.7), inventories shrank less (47.9 vs 47.2) and supplier deliveries continued to slow (53.8 vs 56.2), with increased capacity and shorter lead times accounting for an improvement in supply chain and logistics performance. Meanwhile, a slowdown was seen in new orders (56 vs 56.5) and backlogs of orders (51.8 vs 52.2).      The Producer Price Index for final demand in the US rose 0.3% month-over-month in November of 2022, the same as an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in October and above market forecasts of 0.2%. Cost of services went up 0.4%, the biggest gain in three months, led by securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and relate...

Summary:      Well...the markets continue confused and the economy continues to slowly slow. In a conference this week, J. Powell said that the FED funds rate rises are going to slow, in order to evaluate the effects of recent rate hikes on the system. Thus, a 0.5% increase in December is to be expected. The stock market rallied like crazy. The jobs report on Friday came a bit stronger than expected, increasing confusion. In the meanwhile, main US stock market indices are approaching resistance levels and may go in either direction. The market participants will be awaiting the next FED decision and company earnings over the coming quarters.     The Chicago PMI in the United States tumbled to 37.2 points in November of 2022 from 45.20 points in the previous month, marking the third consecutive month of contractions. It is the lowest reading since May of 2020, well below market forecasts of 47. Among the main five indicators, a decline was seen for productio...