Summary and Comment This was yet another calm week on the US markets, with no special economic highlights except for the preliminary estimate of building permits, which tumbled 8.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.413 million in March 2023. Over in China, the economy advanced 4.5% YoY in Q1 of 2023, accelerating from a 2.9% growth in Q4 and topping market estimates of 4%. It was the strongest pace of expansion since Q1 of 2022, amid efforts from Beijing to spur the post-pandemic recovery. Retail sales growth was at a near 2-year high in March, industrial output rose the most in 5 months, and the surveyed jobless rate fell to its lowest in 7 months. Data released earlier showed exports from China unexpectedly rebounded in March, and the trade surplus came larger due to efforts to deepen trade with developed countries and explore new possibilities with emerging economies.  In the UK, YoY inflation rate is still high, at 10.1%, and unemployment rate is steady at 3.8%...

Summary and Comment Another calm week on the markets, with news of slowing CPI in the US (0.1% MoM) and US retail sales falling more than expected. The producer prices for final demand in the US (PPI) fell 0.5% MoM in March of 2023, the biggest decline since April of 2020. The economy is slowing, no doubt. For the week, stock markets are essentially flat, with small caps rising a bit more than big caps. Prices seem to be consolidating around current values, and markets are orderly/stable, unless some big event triggers a sell-off. Gold is holding around the 2000$/oz, and silver gained a bit (the metals are getting overbought and a slight correction can be expected). Oil is holding around 80-85$/barrel, while natural gas rose ~5%. The relative strength of the US dollar declined by ~0.5%, and we can highlight the rise of the eur/usd by ~0.9%. US bond yields rose ~3% this week, and the yield curve is peaking at 5.09% in July 2023. The yield curve is showing first signs of un-inversion, ty...

 Summary and Comment This week was marked by a surprise announcement by OPEC+, stating that oil production would be cut by around 1.16 million barrels per day. Now we need to see if the cut is executed and how the balance of offer/demand evolves over the course of the year (China re-opening vs slowing economy). But one thing seems certain: oil producers don't want the oil price to fall. A few more economic indicators were released, which point to a slowing of industrial production and a cooling labor market in the US. ISM Manufacturing PMI, in the US, came lower than expected. The reading pointed to a fifth straight month of contraction in factory activity, as companies continue to slow outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period. New orders (44.3 vs 47), employment (46.9 vs 49.1) and backlogs of orders (43.9 vs 45.1) shrank faster. Also, production continued to decline (47.8 vs 47.3), inventories moved to co...

 Summary and Comment   This week, no major news, except for the Donald Trump indictment in the US, which will most likely be favorable to him next year, when the run for office begins (he will be playing the role of the victim and underdog). In the US, PCE price index came out slightly lower than expected (core PCE ~0.3% MoM). If energy doesn't explode in the months ahead, inflation numbers will probably continue to ease, slowly. In the UK, GDP is flat, home prices falling, and inflation pretty high! In EU, unemployment is still stable but inflation is not easing yet (~7%, far away from the 2% target). Overall stock market in the US was positive for the week and showing less instability compared to previous weeks (banking crisis). However, we are not out of the woods yet. It starts to look more and more like a sideways market, while investors look forward to the rest of the year (recession?). Oil went higher and natural gas lower. Precious metals stable, with gold close to...

Summary and Commentary   Past Wednesday, March 22 2023, the FED raised interest rates another 0.25 %, and signaled that more rate hikes might not be required. We were assured the banking system is robust and deposits are kind of guaranteed... But you should decide who to trust. The markets have been swinging up and down, as if waiting for some big piece of news, some new COVID or nuclear war, to decide the market direction. We don't see how a recession can be avoided, as the COVID cash dries up, economic/financial crises develop and unemployment rises... We are seeing US yields falling, a massive debt buying. Stocks have been holding up, but without direction. Our feeling? The next big stock market move will be down, likely sharp (this can unfold later in the year, as the economy slows and earnings disappoint). In the UK, inflation keeps steady at record highs (10.4 %)!!! QoQ GDP was -0.2% in the previous quarter, let's see how the numbers are this time!!! In the US, durable go...