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Week in Review: 8-12 May 2023

Summary and Comment

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to a six-month low of 57.7 in May of 2023. "While current incoming macroeconomic data show no sign of recession, consumers’ worries about the economy escalated in May alongside the proliferation of negative news about the economy, including the debt crisis standoff", Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said. The year-ahead inflation expectations receded slightly to 4.5%.

The inflation rate in the US was 4.9% YoY and 0.4% MoM, while the producer price inflation (PPI) increased 0.2% MoM. It seems inflation is moderating at a slower pace, while the economy is cooling. Will this end up in a stagflation scenario?

For the week, stock markets are mixed, with the S&P500 down 0.3 %, the NASDAQ up 0.6 %, and the RUSSEL 2000 down 1.1 %. Gold is down 0.3 % and silver is down  6.6 %. The barrel of WTI dropped 1.4 % for the week. Natural gas recovered significantly (+6.4 %).

The relative strength of the US dollar rised (1.4 %). The US 10-year yield rised slightly to 3.47%. The US yield curve is now downward sloping until 2030 and then rises to ~3.8% for the 20Y and 30Y maturities.

Next week, in the US, the spotlight will be on speeches by several Fed officials and retail trade data, followed by industrial production and several housing indicators

Sources:

https://tradingeconomics.com/

 

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