Summary and Commentary In May, treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that more mergers among midsize U.S. banks could be necessary after a series of bank failures. And she was right. This week, Banc of California and PacWest merged. Still on the banking theme... The FED, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency all agreed to put the over 1000-page proposal out for public feedback, which the banking industry is already criticizing. The new rules would increase the level of capital that banks with at least $100 billion in assets would be required to hold (an additional two percentage points of capital, or an additional $2 of capital for every $100 of risk-weighted assets). Furthermore, banks would be required to factor in unrealized losses and gains on securities in their portfolios in the capital ratios. But smaller regional banks would be spared from these new rules - these changes would not have prevented the collapse of Silicon Valley...

Summary and Comment Consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom dropped to 7.9% in June 2023, marking the lowest level since March 2022 and slightly below the market consensus of 8.2%, mainly due to a slump in fuel prices. Additionally, the core rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, eased to 6.9% from May's 31-year high of 7.1%.   In Canada, the annual inflation rate fell to 2.8% in June of 2023, from 3.4% in the previous month, as gasoline prices declined further. Transportation costs fell by 3.4%, extending the 2.4% decline in the previous month amid a 21.6% slide in the price of gasoline. Food inflation remained steady at 8.3%. Also, soaring interest rates from the BoC pinned the increase in mortgage interest costs (30.1%).   Building permits in the United States dropped by 3.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.44 million in June 2023. This value is ~25% lower than the 2022 peak, but is close to the historical average - the following quart...

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Summary and Comments This week's highlights are on the inflation data all around the world. China's consumer price inflation (YoY) came out flat (0%) in June 2023, missing market expectations. This was the lowest reading since a deflation in February 2021. Core consumer prices, which exclude prices of food and energy, went up 0.4% YoY, the least since March 2021. On a monthly basis, consumer prices unexpectedly dropped by 0.2%, the fifth straight month of falls. China's producer prices dropped 5.4% YoY in June 2023, steeper than a 4.6% fall in the prior month and worse than market forecasts of a 5.0% decline. It was the ninth consecutive month of producer deflation and the fastest fall since December 2015 amid weakening demand and moderating commodity prices. On a monthly basis, producer prices decreased by 0.8%. Inflation Rate in Germany increased to 6.38% in June (from 6.1% in May of 2023). The annual inflation rate in Brazil receded to 3.16% in June of 2023 from 3.94% in...

Summary and Comment   These weeks have been full of economic indicator releases, which are briefly summarized here.  Personal spending in the United States edged up by 0.1 % in May 2023, short of market expectations of a 0.2 % increase and compared to a 0.6 % gain in April. Personal income in the United States rose by 0.4% over a month in May of 2023, compared to a downwardly revised 0.3% rise in April, United States Core PCE Price Index rose by 0.3% in May, easing from the 0.4% increase in the previous month. New orders for US manufactured durable goods jumped 1.7% month-over-month in May 2023. The US economy added 209K jobs in June 2023, following a downwardly revised 306K in May. However, the unemployment rate in the US stood at 3.6 % in June 2023, in line with market expectations. The so-called U-6 unemployment rate, which also includes people who want to work, but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, rose to 6....