News Summary The U.S. is on the brink of a federal government shutdown after hard-right Republicans in Congress rejected a longshot effort to keep offices open as they fight for steep spending cuts and strict border security measures that Democrats and the White House say are too extreme. Come midnight Saturday with no deal in place, federal workers will face furloughs, more than 2 million active duty and reserve military troops will work without pay and programs and services that Americans rely on from coast to coast will begin to face shutdown disruptions. The Senate will be in for a rare Saturday session to advance its own bipartisan package that is supported by Democrats and Republicans and would fund the government for the short-term, through Nov. 17. But even if the Senate can rush to wrap up its work this weekend to pass the bill, which also includes money for Ukraine aid and U.S. disaster assistance, it won't prevent an almost certain shutdown amid the chaos i...

News Summary For more than 212 straight trading days the 10-year yield have held below the three-month yield, a situation known as yield curve inversion. Such an inversion was a predictor of the last eight recessions. The apparent disconnect between the market’s warning and the surprisingly resilient economy shows how much uncertainty has persisted since the Fed started its aggressive rate hikes in March 2022, the steepest increase since the early 1980s. In October 2022, when the three-month to 10-year segment of the yield curve inverted, the vast majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted a recession would come by this year. Yet the U.S. economy has continued to expand. The inverted yield curve can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. That’s in part because its successful track record may cause businesses and consumers to cut back, seeing it as an accurate predictor of trouble ahead. It also ripples through the credit system by giving banks less incentive to extend loans, since ...

News Summary On Wednesday, Philip Jefferson took the oath of office as the Federal Reserve Board's new vice chair, as policymakers gear up for an interest-rate-setting meeting next week. Jefferson, who will be the second Black person to hold the vice chair post, will continue to hold a separate term as governor, which runs through 2036. The vice chair term lasts four years. Jefferson, 61, has backed every Fed interest-rate decision since he joined the Board of Governors. Also sworn in were Fed Governor Lisa Cook to a new 14-year term, and Adriana Kugler as the Fed's newest Board member. These appointments will not likely change the outcome of the September meeting, at which Fed officials are anticipated to leave the policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.50% range. U.S. President Joe Biden has sought to bring more people from racially-diverse backgrounds into the Fed leadership to ensure a broader range of perspectives as policymakers weigh decisions that affect the economic wel...

News Summary   The week started with the Typhoon Haikui hiting Taiwan and China. In Taiwan, more than 7000 people were evacuated from high-risk areas, and at least 40 people were injured in the storm. Now, a brief note about the ageing government representatives in the US. The top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell, 81, has suffered high-profile lapses but Democrats are reluctant to question his age when Joe Biden, now 80, is America’s oldest president The question was simple: what are your thoughts about running for re-election in 2026? “Oh,” said Mitch McConnell with a half-chuckle, a mumble and then: silence. The most powerful Republican in the US Senate stared into space and said nothing for more than 30 seconds. It was the second time in little more than a month that 81-year-old McConnell had frozen while speaking to reporters. But there were few voices in the Democratic party calling on him to step down. The question of age is one that both party establishments in America have...

Summary China's State Council rolled out a trillion yuan package in economic stimulus. The latest $146 billion in assistance will target infrastructure, property, and private business. The initiatives are expected to cover a range of targets the government has identified as in need of support. Among the targets were state banks that were given an additional $44 billion to finance infrastructure projects. Local governments were given permission to use more than $73 billion to reduce financing costs. As electricity firms face challenges sparked by droughts and heat waves, they were also given $29 billion. The spending comes after Beijing had unexpectedly lowered two of its key interest rates, stepping up efforts to shore up growth, amid COVID-19 lockdowns and a deep property slump. China has rolled out a new batch of stimulus measures to boost the nation’s ailing property market and support a weakening yuan, in its latest attempt to restore confidence. The policy announcements sent A...