Skip to main content

Week in Review: 17-21 June 2024

Financial Markets (Weekly)

Week-on-week, the main stock market indices were slightly up, with the S&P500 up 0.6%, the NASDAQ 100 up 0.2%, and the RUSSEL 2000 up 1.0%.

Gold fell 0.5% and is holding the ~2320%/oz level. If gold breaks below the 2300$ level, it could fall until ~2150$/oz.  Silver is unchanged relative to the previous week, and still seems to be in a downward trend (the next support should be around 28$).

The barrel of WTI rised 2.7% to ~80$ per barrel. It looks like WTI could continue in the range of 75-85 USD/bbl over the next weeks.

Bitcoin fell 3.9% and is around 64000$. It has been in the range of 60k-72k$ since March 2024 and if if falls below 60k, the sentiment might turn more bearish and risk averse.

The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) is slightly up (+0.3%), and has been stable in the range 104-106 since April 2024.

Financial conditions (NFCI) loosened again relative to the previous week.  Based on the current trend, we predict  that financial conditions could hit a wall in the window of August-October 2024, which could be the start of a bigger correction in the markets or coincide with a narrative change (or even a recession).

M2 money supply (USM2) rised only slightly and is around 20.867T$.

US bond yields didn't change much (slight increase) and now sit at 4.74% for the 2-year and 4.26% for the 10-year. 


Comment Section

New record highs were reached on the S&P, but the NASDAQ put up a topping tail, that is, the new record high was rejected and the week closed essentially unchanged. NVDA is probably going to pull back the market a little bit during the next week. The Russel 2000 continues sideways.

The VIX (volatility index) increased slightly but is still historically low, indicating that investors are not seeking puts for protection, expiring in the next ~25-30 days. High yield bond spreads are still small, indicating low stress on the credit markets (good credit availability).

On the macro side, there are signs of the US economy slowing down, a sluggish China, and a stagnant Europe. The ECB started cutting rates, as did the Swiss National Bank. This year, the FED is also expected to start cutting rates. Note that historically, interest rate cuts coincide with the beginning of a recession (plus or minus a few months).

Good luck.


Recommended Videos


Video: This Globally Systemic Bank Just Went Into Crisis Mode (Derivatives)

Channel: George Gammon



Video: Retail apocalypse underway. Stores shutting down.

Channel: Reventure Consulting



Video: Trading & Investing: Nvidia Tops, Reversion Trade Opportunity, Global Worries, Bitcoin Danger Zone

Channel: Gareth Soloway


Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Most Read

Week in Review: 23-27 September 2024

Financial Markets For the week, the main stock market indices were slightly up, with the S&P500 gaining 0.6% and the NASDAQ 100 up by 1.1%. The small cap index (Russel 2000) dropped 0.5%. Only the S&P closed at an all-time-high. Gold closed the week at a new all-time-high of 2657$/oz. Silver is still holding the 31$ level and it can go in either direction in the coming weeks, although we favor the downside from a fundamental perspective (slowing industrial demand). The barrel of WTI fell 3.7% and is again around 68$, which is a short-term technical support level. Bitcoin was up by 3.1% and seems to be in the top end of the 53-66k$ range it has been following for the past couple of months. The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) fell slightly but is still around the 100-101 support level. The EUR/USD is at 1.12$, while the USD/JPY is slightly down to 142 JPY. US M2 money supply metrics have not been updated since the 26th of August. The national financial condit...
Post a Comment
Read more

Week in Review: 21-25 October 2024

Financial Markets For the week, the main stock market indices were mixed, with the S&P500 losing 1% and the NASDAQ 100 up by 0.1%. The small cap index (Russel 2000) fell 3.1%, giving up the previous week's gains. The precious metals remained strong but are about to stall. Gold gained 0.9% while silver ended the week unchanged. Recently silver broke out of the 32$ level and now needs to defend this level. WTI jumped off the 68$ level, and gained 4.1% this week -it now sits at ~71.6$/bbl. Bitcoin fell 2.7% and is in the upper range of the channel it has been trading in since March 2024. In our opinion, bitcoin it is not looking particularly bearish nor bullish. It can go up to 74k or down to 60k in the near future. The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was again up slightly and into the 104 level. The EUR/USD is around 1.08$, while the USD/JPY is at 152 JPY. US M2 money supply at the date of 30th September 2024 was up by 0.38%. The national financial conditions ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Week in Review: 9-13 September 2024 - The FED Put!

Financial Markets For the week, the main stock market indices were up, with the S&P500 recovering 4% and the NASDAQ 100 up 5.9%. Last week's losses were eliminated. The small cap index (Russel 2000) was 4.4% in the green. Gold closed the week at a new all-time-high of 2577$/oz. Silver followed gold and popped 10%! We now need to see if silver holds the current levels or if it fails and returns to the 28-30$ range. The barrel of WTI recovered 1.7% but still looks bearish. Bitcoin followed the stock market direction, but with less enthusiasm, recovering 7.8%. It still seems likely that bitcoin will trade in the range of 53-66k$ in the following weeks. The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was nearly unchanged and around 101. The EUR/USD is at 1.109$, while the USD/JPY is down to 140.8 JPY. US M2 money supply has not been updated this week. The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 2nd September 2024 loosened by 2.9% and doesn't transla...
Post a Comment
Read more