Skip to main content

Week in Review: 8-12 July 2024

Financial Markets

Week-on-week, the main stock market indices were positive, with the S&P500 gaining 0.86%, the NASDAQ 100 nearly unchanged (minus 0.3%), while the RUSSEL 2000 was up by 6.3%, hitting an important resistance level.

Gold's price is only slightly higher (+0.8%) and is still around ~2400$/oz. If gold breaks below the 2300$ level, it could fall until ~2150$/oz. Silver dropped 1.4% for the week but is still holding the 30$ level. Silver has some support around 28$ and resistance at 34-35$.

The barrel of WTI was little changed and is staying at ~82$ per barrel. It looks like WTI could continue in the range of 75-85 USD/bbl over the next weeks.

Bitcoin recovered 5.2% and is around 58700$. Bitcoin seems to be on a downward trend with the next support around 52000$.

The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) is slightly down (-0.8%), and has been stable in the range 104-106 since April 2024.

Financial conditions (NFCI) have loosened by ~0.8% relative to the previous week, supporting the stock market and other risk assets.

June M2 money supply (USM2) values are not available yet.

US bond yields lowered this week, and now sit at 4.46% for the 2-year and 4.19% for the 10-year.


Comment Section

The main US stock market index (S&P500) continues climbing the wall of worry, while its equal-weight cousin (the RSP) is below its March 2024 historical maximum, indicating a narrow bull trend. The Russel 2000 was very positive for the week, but is now hitting a resistance level, so it is very important to watch what happens over the next weeks.

The VIX (volatility index) remains historically low, indicating that investors are not seeking puts for protection (expiring in the next ~25-30 days). High yield bond spreads are still small, indicating low stress on the credit markets (good credit availability).

On the macroeconomic front, the week was marked by the release of various inflation prints around the world. In China, year-over-year inflation is essentially zero, in Brazil around 4.2%, 2.2% in Germany and France, and 3% in the US. The US month-over-month inflation rate was -0.1%, lower than expected, but on Friday the PPI was in line with expectations (0.2%). Inflation is not dead in the Western world, but it seems under control.

Take care, and good luck.


Recommended Videos


Video: Major spike in unemployment. Fed will be forced to cut rates imminently.

Channel: Reventure Consulting



Video: Housing Bubble Starting To Pop Because Of This...

Channel: Rebel Capitalist



 

Video: I Was Bankrupt… Now I’ve Made $3 Billion

Channel: School of Hard Knocks


Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Most Read

Week in Review: 23-27 September 2024

Financial Markets For the week, the main stock market indices were slightly up, with the S&P500 gaining 0.6% and the NASDAQ 100 up by 1.1%. The small cap index (Russel 2000) dropped 0.5%. Only the S&P closed at an all-time-high. Gold closed the week at a new all-time-high of 2657$/oz. Silver is still holding the 31$ level and it can go in either direction in the coming weeks, although we favor the downside from a fundamental perspective (slowing industrial demand). The barrel of WTI fell 3.7% and is again around 68$, which is a short-term technical support level. Bitcoin was up by 3.1% and seems to be in the top end of the 53-66k$ range it has been following for the past couple of months. The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) fell slightly but is still around the 100-101 support level. The EUR/USD is at 1.12$, while the USD/JPY is slightly down to 142 JPY. US M2 money supply metrics have not been updated since the 26th of August. The national financial condit...
Post a Comment
Read more

Week in Review: 21-25 October 2024

Financial Markets For the week, the main stock market indices were mixed, with the S&P500 losing 1% and the NASDAQ 100 up by 0.1%. The small cap index (Russel 2000) fell 3.1%, giving up the previous week's gains. The precious metals remained strong but are about to stall. Gold gained 0.9% while silver ended the week unchanged. Recently silver broke out of the 32$ level and now needs to defend this level. WTI jumped off the 68$ level, and gained 4.1% this week -it now sits at ~71.6$/bbl. Bitcoin fell 2.7% and is in the upper range of the channel it has been trading in since March 2024. In our opinion, bitcoin it is not looking particularly bearish nor bullish. It can go up to 74k or down to 60k in the near future. The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was again up slightly and into the 104 level. The EUR/USD is around 1.08$, while the USD/JPY is at 152 JPY. US M2 money supply at the date of 30th September 2024 was up by 0.38%. The national financial conditions ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Week in Review: 9-13 September 2024 - The FED Put!

Financial Markets For the week, the main stock market indices were up, with the S&P500 recovering 4% and the NASDAQ 100 up 5.9%. Last week's losses were eliminated. The small cap index (Russel 2000) was 4.4% in the green. Gold closed the week at a new all-time-high of 2577$/oz. Silver followed gold and popped 10%! We now need to see if silver holds the current levels or if it fails and returns to the 28-30$ range. The barrel of WTI recovered 1.7% but still looks bearish. Bitcoin followed the stock market direction, but with less enthusiasm, recovering 7.8%. It still seems likely that bitcoin will trade in the range of 53-66k$ in the following weeks. The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was nearly unchanged and around 101. The EUR/USD is at 1.109$, while the USD/JPY is down to 140.8 JPY. US M2 money supply has not been updated this week. The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 2nd September 2024 loosened by 2.9% and doesn't transla...
Post a Comment
Read more