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Week in Review: 26-30 August 2024

Financial Markets

For the week, the main stock market indices were close to unchanged, with the S&P500 gaining 0.2% and the NASDAQ 100 down by 0.7%. The small cap index, the Russel 2000, lost 0.3%.

Gold is still hovering close to all-time-highs, but lost 0.4% - even if it falls to 2400$, it could still be part of a bullish consolidation. Silver fell 3.2% and is around the 29$/oz level - we favor the downside from here, towards ~27$.

The barrel of WTI fell 1.87%, below the support level that we were watching. We we wouldn't be surprised if it continues falling towards 71$.

Bitcoin lost the gains from the previous week and is down to ~57900$. The trend for bitcoin is downwards in the short term.

The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) recovered ~1.1% and is holding the support level around 100-101, which is coinciding with the 200-week moving average. The EUR/USD fell to 1.10$, while the USD/JPY is up to 146 JPY.

US M2 money supply has not been updated this week.

The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 19th August 2024 has loosened by 2.3% and doesn't seem to translate particular signs of financial stress in the markets.

US bond yields now sit at 3.92% for the 2-year and 3.91% for the 10-year. The yield curve is very close to uninversion.

The VIX is around 15, and shows market complacency (no fear).


Comment Section

We survived a week that was marked by the NVIDIA earnings - a beat but not with crazy guidance, which didn't leave investors very excited. The markets didn't tank (yet). We are at a moment where the bulls have lost their strength and momentum. If nobody else is buying, then the stock market moves in the near term are likely going to be sideways and slightly down (unless positive news start popping out of somewhere).

The next months are going to be marked by the FED rate cuts and the US election, so sit tight and relax. Volatility is coming. Keep some cash aside for opportunities and don't be overly aggressive for now (it's too soon to go heavy on the trigger).

Take care, and good luck.



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