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Week in Review: 18-22 November 2024

Financial Markets

For the week, the main stock market indices were up, with the S&P500 gaining 1.7% and the NASDAQ 100 1.9% in the green. The small cap index (Russel 2000) gained by 4.5%.

Precious metals recovered from last week's decline. Gold and silver gained 6% and 3.6%, respectively. The metals can go in either direction from current levels - let's keep watching.

WTI went up by 6.3% and is now around 71$. Oil will likely trade sideways in the near future (67-72$).

Bitcoin continued ramping up and is at 98.4k$. Will it reach 100k before pulling back?

The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was up this week, fueled by weak European PMI data which indicates economic contraction in the old continent. The DXY is at a short term resistance (107). The EUR/USD is around 1.04$, the GBP/USD is at 1.25$, and the USD/JPY is at 154.73 JPY.

US M2 money supply at the date of 30th September 2024 was up by 0.38%.

The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 11th November 2024 loosened by 4% and doesn't translate signs of financial stress in the markets.

US bond yields changed little this week, and now sit at 4.379% for the 2-year and 4.404% for the 10-year.

The VIX remained stable and around 15-16. This means the markets are not very fearful and investors/speculators are not searching for put options.


Comment Section

This was a recovery week in the stock markets, but now we need to see whether we continue on an uptrend (making higher highs and higher lows) or whether we start having a downtrend (lower highs, and lower lows)!
 
As we said last week, the market seems to be losing momentum, and we predict some more months of complacency and perhaps a lateral market, while the economic picture doesn't get perfectly clear regarding a possible recession.

Take care, and good luck.


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