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Week in Review: 4-8 November 2024 - Trump Wins!!!

Financial Markets

For the week, the main stock market indices were UP, with the S&P500 gaining 4.7% and the NASDAQ 100 5.4% in the green. The small cap index (Russel 2000) got pumped by 8.7%.

Precious metals are retracing a bit these days. Gold and silver fell 1.9% and 3.5%, respectively. Recently, silver broke below 32$ and is now probably going towards the 30$ level.

WTI is around the 70$ level, which is short-term support. Oil will likely trade sideways in the near future (68-72$).

Bitcoin spiked 17% this week, breaking above the 74k level. It can re-test this level again before continuing to the upside (or breaking back below!).

The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was up by 0.6%. The EUR/USD is around 1.07$, the GBP/USD is at 1.29$, and the USD/JPY is at 152.6 JPY.

US M2 money supply at the date of 30th September 2024 was up by 0.38%.

The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 28th October 2024 tightened by 1.4% and doesn't translate considerable signs of financial stress in the markets (yet).

US bond yields went up this week, especially on the long-end, and now sit at 4.256% for the 2-year and 4.308% for the 10-year.

The VIX plummeted 32% as the US stock markets rallied. The VIX is back to the 15 level. This means that put option sellers need to reload their weapons and prepare for the next wave of volatility, which may come in a few weeks.


Comment Section

Finally, Donald J. Trump is back!!!
 
The markets rallied, but are now getting a bit over-extended and should correct. The earnings season has revealed stalling revenue and profits all across the board. So, fundamentally, there is no reason for valuations to go up in the stock market. Furthermore, US bond yields have been rising, likely due to fears of re-igniting inflation. We interpret this as a moderation in appetite towards risk assets, thus this week (or next week), the stock market direction should be down! It can be just a cooling down of excitement or a slightly bigger correction (which would also be healthy).

Take care, and good luck.


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Channel: Insider News

 

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