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Week in Review: 2-6 December 2024

Financial Markets

For the week, the main stock market indices were up, with the S&P500 gaining 1% and the NASDAQ 100 3.3% in the green. The small cap index (Russel 2000) lost 1.2% and is around resistance.

Precious metals are on the lower range of the current trading channel. Gold fell 0.7% and and silver gained 1.1%. Nothing new to say about precious metals except that current levels must be defended, otherwise we will turn bearish.

WTI fell 1.5% and continues hammering the 67-68$ level, a short term support. If this level breaks, WTI can go to 61-62$ over the next weeks or months.

Bitcoin was up 4%, momentarily passing the 100k$ level, and is currently around 99k. We are now in uncharted territory. Bitcoin can pullback at any moment or consolidate for a while, even if buyers keep showing up, likely because a lot of BTC holders are taking  profits around current levels (supply and demand are balanced).

The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was little changed this week (still around 106). The EUR/USD is around 1.06$, the GBP/USD is at 1.27$, and the USD/JPY is at 150.0 JPY.

US M2 money supply at the date of 28th October 2024 was up by 0.42%.

The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 25th November 2024 loosened by 3.4% and doesn't translate signs of financial stress in the markets.

US bond yields fell slightly this week, and now sit at 4.102% for the 2-year and 4.137% for the 10-year.

The VIX fell to 12.7 and can continue falling until ~12. This means the markets are not very fearful and investors/speculators are not searching for put options.


Comment Section

December continues looking positive and relentless in the stock markets. Nobody is fearful and any meaningful correction will only likely come next year. As usual, volumes are going to be low in the last weeks of the month. However, it is important to keep looking for fundamental or market psychology changes.

Take care, and good luck.

 


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